The USD/CAD Rate Eyes June Low on Wait-and-See BoC Policy has been on display for traders of all experience levels. The main reason is because the BoC has been taking a “wait and see” approach to the exchange rate. This means that it is willing to give the markets a chance to catch up with the BoC’s current set of policy decisions.
It also means that the American dollar is set to remain at a relatively steady base against the major currencies in the global market. As a result, the currency markets in general have been taking a breather from their long-term bullish trends. That is why the USD/CAD is likely to remain low until the BoC issues its next statement.
If the US economy were to get back on track, the USD/CAD Rate could start to rise again. However, the timing will be off until the BoC issues a statement on its policy decisions. At that time, the USD/CAD Rate could be in an upward trend, but that may be too late to save the currency at its current low.
As for what the BoC will do next, it is not yet clear. It could opt to move the dollar/CAD against other currencies or it could remain the same. This would be a move that the markets would be watching closely, because it would be a significant move. If the BoC decides to move against the dollar, the USD/CAD Rate could start to climb again, especially if the United States economy starts to improve.
In any case, the next statement by the BoC will probably be an update to its economic news. Its next statement is likely to come in the second half of September, but it could come sooner.
If the BoC does move against the dollar, the USD/CAD Rate will likely start to decline again. The market will watch closely and if it sees that the BoC is likely to be easing off its monetary policies, the currency prices of other major currencies, especially the USD, will likely increase in anticipation of a stronger dollar.
At this point, it is not clear whether the BoC is going to be following through on its economic news or not. The central bank may just be waiting for the US economy to catch up with its current set of policy decisions. If that happens, the dollar may not be at the top level at the end of the year.
So, while the USD/CAD may remain at its current level for now, traders will want to be prepared for a correction in the near future. This correction is likely to be more intense in the second half of the year, as the second half of the year tends to be the strongest of the year in the forex markets.
In a strong second half, the US economy tends to strengthen. For instance, the US GDP will likely grow at a faster pace, which means that the US dollar will also strengthen.
At this point, the dollar will likely be at a level that would allow it to break through the psychologically important $1.50 level, which is the level at which traders typically exit their positions and look to make new ones in the second half of the year. If the US economy is at a point where it needs to tighten its policy a bit, the dollar will probably be at a level that is near $1.50.
As a result, in the second half of the year, the dollar is likely to stay near this level for a period of time. Traders will be looking for a period of time at a break below this level. A break below this level would allow the dollar to break through the psychologically important $1 level and then start to strengthen.
It is important to remember that the strong second half of the year is one where the USD is expected to break through the psychological level of about $1.50 and then remain at this level. Long term investors should be aware that the strength of the second half of the year is one where the US economy is expected to grow at a more rapid pace and therefore a breakout from its current low will be more likely than in other times of the year.